Will the GOP lose either the House or the Senate? It seems to be the favorite guessing game now, trying to figure out if they lose and is so how much. Where did the GOP lose their support?
Glenn Reynolds has posted a partial list of why he believes the GOP is losing. I don't really agree with most of his list (people's memory are short), I agree with his listing of immigration.
4. Immigration: Another unforced error. The national security constituency once again lost faith in the Administration. You can't talk about secure borders when the borders are porous. The Administration also failed to make a strong clear argument for immigration, outsourcing that to the Wall Street Journal, which did its best but couldn't do the President's job. Again, the White House's position on immigration was defensible in the abstract, but favoring easy immigration is one thing, favoring easy illegal immigration is another.
This issue just didn't disappoint the GOP base, it infuriated it. It just made it worse when the Bush administration dug in it's heels and ignored the base. The House didn't redeem the GOP by staying strong on the issue. The whole thing just fizzled and all we got was a little bitty fence.
One thing that I think should be included was the President's handling of the war between Israel and Hezbollah. One wonders if the President is getting soft on the war on Terror.
So, is it going to really all that bad if the Democrats win? It's not likely they'll get a lot of legislation passed because both the House and Senate will be almost equally divided. At most, the Democrats will be involved in tons of investigations and committees trying to impeach President Bush. It'll be very uncomfortable for Bush and make everyone else disgusted with their antics.
Michael Barone has commented on what the Democrats would do.
And what are the new ideas that Democrats are campaigning on? They've had a hard time coming up with a list. At the top, usually, is raising the minimum wage.
As for the macroeconomy, the Democrats offer few policies except to refuse to extend the Bush tax cuts, which in important cases don't expire till 2010. On foreign policy, their stands tend to be incoherent: We should be more multilateral in Iraq and less multilateral on North Korea. "Redeployment" of troops from Iraq to Okinawa (John Murtha) or Kuwait (Hillary Clinton).
The President isn't going to allow "redeployment" and if the Democrats try to cut money for defense they're going to get screams from the American people. Democrats can't be strong on protecting America if they cut funds to defense. In the long run, two years of Democrat control could sour people so that by 2008 they ready to give the GOP back control along with the White House. These next two years could be very interesting and exciting.